Women´s Super League predictions: Can Man City edge closer to WSL title with derby win over Man Utd?

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Women´s Super League predictions: Can Man City edge closer to WSL title with derby win over Man Utd?

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Another week, another full fixture list from the Women’s Super League, with the latest round of matches offering up three derbies to whet the appetite.

The Manchester derby headlines Saturday’s action, with league leaders Manchester City knowing a win over Manchester United will extend their lead at the top to 11 points.

Everton face Liverpool in the Merseyside derby in the opening game of MD19, while a clash between North London rivals Arsenal and Tottenham continues to spice things up.

Defending champions Chelsea travel to Aston Villa, while West Ham make the short trip across the capital to take on a London City Lionesses side desperate for a victory.

Leicester City know time is running out in their bid for survival, and they will be hoping to kickstart a great escape against Brighton, who are just nine points above them.

But who will the winners and losers be? The Opta supercomputer has had its say on what could be a huge weekend at both ends of the table.

EVERTON V LIVERPOOL

A day of derbies kicks off at Goodison Park, with Everton taking on Merseyside rivals Liverpool as both teams look to secure a return to winning ways in the WSL.

The Toffees were beaten 2-1 by Manchester United in their last league outing, while Liverpool were held to a goalless draw by Brighton, and the Opta supercomputer has predicted the latest clash between these two rivals to go in favour of the hosts.

Everton won 44.4% of our 10,000 pre-match simulations, compared to Liverpool’s 28.7% win probability. A draw is predicted to occur in 26.8% of scenarios.

The fact Scott Phelan’s side are tagged as favourites perhaps owes to their impressive form in this fixture. Everton have won more WSL games against Liverpool than any other team (10) and the Toffees are unbeaten in each of their last eight league meetings with the Reds (W6 D2), since a 3-1 loss in May 2019.

In addition, Everton have won their last two WSL home matches, while they have only once previously recorded three successive victories on home soil in the competition – doing so in July 2011 (a run that included a 1-0 win over Liverpool).

Liverpool, though, defeated Everton 2-1 in the most recent encounter between these two sides in the Women’s FA Cup fifth round last month, but they have not won back-to-back matches against their neighbours since a run of four wins from July 2015 to September 2017.

MANCHESTER UNITED V MANCHESTER CITY

The standout fixture in the WSL this weekend sees second-placed Manchester United welcome rivals and league leaders Manchester City to Old Trafford.

Andree Jeglertz’s side have not played since their 5-2 thrashing of Tottenham in their last league fixture, while the Red Devils were involved in Champions League action in midweek, losing the first leg of their quarter-final tie 3-2 to Bayern Munich.

The Citizens will be the fresher of the two sides, and they will hope their star striker performs on the biggest stage this weekend.

Khadija Shaw has scored 80 league goals for Man City, the joint-most one player has for a single club in the WSL, alongside Vivianne Miedema for Arsenal.

The Jamaican is two goals away from reaching 20 for the season, which would make her the first player in Women’s Super League history to net 20+ goals in three different campaigns (previously 21 in 2023-24 and 20 in 2022-23).

This tussle has been a one-sided affair of late. United have won only two of their 12 WSL meetings with City (D4 L6), winning 2-1 at home in May 2023 and 4-2 away from home in January 2025.

The Citizens emerged 3-0 victors in the reverse fixture back in November, scoring all three goals in the first half, and they could complete a WSL double over the Red Devils for the second time, after the 2023-24 campaign.

But Marc Skinner’s hosts will certainly have their say. Only Arsenal (11) are on a longer run without defeat in the WSL than United, who are unbeaten in nine matches (W6 D3) since that 3-0 loss to City in November.

Only twice before have the Red Devils had a run of 10+ games without defeat in the competition, managing 14 in December 2020 and 13 in November 2023.

And you can expect plenty of goalmouth action, given only City (52) have scored more goals in the 2025-26 WSL than United (37). The Red Devils will also be looking to net multiple goals in six consecutive home matches for the first time in the WSL.

The Opta supercomputer has predicted City to extend their eight-point lead at the summit with a win, as this weekend’s visitors came out on top in 41.9% of the data-led simulations, while United were assigned a 32.6% chance of taking all three points.

A City win would, of course, guarantee that they finish above their neighbours and leave Chelsea and Arsenal – the latter of whom have games in hand – as the only teams mathematically capable of stopping their title procession.

ARSENAL V TOTTENHAM

Another team involved in Champions League action in midweek was Arsenal, who return to the Emirates Stadium on Saturday to take on Tottenham in the North London derby.

The European champions beat Chelsea 3-1 in the first leg of their quarter-final tie, and they are backed to build on that victory against their arch-rivals.

Arsenal are assigned a 78.7% win probability compared to Tottenham’s 8.4% chance of victory, with the likelihood of the spoils being shared rated at just 12.9%.

Renee Slegers’ side being the overwhelming favourites in this fixture is perhaps down to their dominance over Spurs. Arsenal have won nine of their 12 WSL games against Tottenham (D2 L1), scoring 33 goals in North London derbies while conceding just four.

Arsenal are also averaging the most points per game in the WSL in 2026, winning four of five games (2.6 – D1). Only in 2017 (first nine), 2015 (first six) and 2012 (all 14) have the Gunners had a better unbeaten start to a calendar year.

But this weekend’s visitors will fancy their chances of getting one over their rivals, particularly on the road. No team has scored more away goals in the WSL this season than Tottenham (20), though only West Ham (21) have conceded more away goals than Spurs (20).

However, Spurs have lost four of their last six WSL games (W2), more defeats than across their first 12 league matches under Martin Ho this season (W7 D2 L3).

Spurs’ Bethany England could make her 200th appearance in the division, becoming the seventh player to reach that milestone. The striker has not scored in any of her last five North London derbies, but has scored the joint-most London derby goals in WSL history (18– level with Beth Mead).

WEST HAM V LONDON CITY LIONESSES

West Ham are three points above the relegation zone heading into their clash with the London City Lionesses, and they may be fearing the worst against Eder Maestre’s side.

That is because only Yeovil Town (P6 W0) have a worse win rate in WSL games against newly promoted opposition than West Ham (38% – P16 W6 D3 L7), who were beaten 1-0 by London City earlier this season.

London City have also won three away league games this season – though all have come outside the capital (Everton, Aston Villa, Brighton). West Ham in 2018-19 (five) are the only newly promoted team to win more times on the road in a WSL campaign.

However, only Leicester City (six) are currently on a longer winless run in the WSL than London City (four – D1 L3) and the Foxes (0) and Brighton (four) are the only teams to win fewer points than the Lionesses in 2026 (five – W1 D2 L4).

West Ham have also lost each of their seven London derbies in the WSL this season, and they could equal the longest losing streak in such derbies in the competition’s history, set by Tottenham in March 2023 and Crystal Palace in April 2025 (both eight).

And the Opta supercomputer struggles to split these two teams, making West Ham the slight favourites with a win probability of 37.7% to London City’s 35.9% chance of victory. A draw happened in 26.4% of scenarios.

CHELSEA V ASTON VILLA

After their defeat to Arsenal in Europe, Chelsea will look to consolidate third place against Aston Villa on Sunday, but they have often struggled after Champions League action.

Indeed, Chelsea have failed to win three of their five WSL games this season when having played a midweek game in the same week (W2 D2 L1). Last season, the Blues won seven of their nine league matches after a midweek outing (D2).

Sonia Bompastor’s side have seen their title defence stutter this season, averaging just 2.06 points per game in the league, which is Chelsea’s worst rate in a WSL campaign since 2014 (1.86). The Blues have dropped points in seven of their 18 games this season (W11 D4 L3), their most since 2018-19 (D6 L2).

Chelsea will, however, be confident of returning to winning ways against Villa, who find themselves in eighth after their comeback win against Leicester.

The Blues have won all 11 of their WSL meetings with Villa by an aggregate score of 28-2. Only one fixture has been played more times in the competition with one side winning every time (Chelsea vs Tottenham – 13 times).

Villa have also never taken the lead against Chelsea in the WSL, the most games one side has played against another without leading at least once. The Villans have trailed at half-time in three of their five WSL away matches versus the Blues.

But they will be hoping Kirsty Hanson can change that. Only City’s Shaw (18) has scored more English top-flight goals than Villa’s number 20 (10) this season.

She is only the second Scottish player to reach double figures in a WSL campaign, after Kim Little in 2012 (11).

However, even with Hanson in their ranks, the Opta supercomputer has sided with Chelsea to win this fixture. The Blues are handed a win probability of 84.2%, the highest of any team on MD19, while Villa are given a 5.8% chance of taking all three points.

LEICESTER CITY V BRIGHTON

The weekend’s action concludes at the King Power Stadium, with bottom club Leicester City hoping to improve their survival hopes with a positive result at home to Brighton.

However, the odds are firmly stacked against them in terms of staying in the division. The Opta supercomputer has predicted Leicester to be relegated in 81.5% of its season simulations, and they are not favoured for a result here, either.

After a late defeat to Aston Villa last time out, Leicester are assigned a 34.1% chance of victory against Brighton, who are fancied in 40.1% of Opta’s pre-match simulations.

Having won just one of their first five WSL meetings with Leicester (D1 L3), Brighton have since won three of their last four encounters with the Foxes in the competition (L1).

The Seagulls are, however, winless in their previous four matches in the WSL (D1 L3). They last endured a longer run without a win in the division between December 2024 and March 2025 (seven).

But they come up against a Leicester side struggling for form. The Foxes have lost each of their last six WSL games, since a 1-0 home win over London City last December. Indeed, it’s their longest losing streak in the competition since a run of 10 defeats between May and December 2022.





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